Will China abolish birth limits?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2030 (56.0%), Before 2029 (40.0%), Before 2028 (26.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Before 2029 | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Before 2028 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Before 2027 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2030:
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Sources
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