Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
As of Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:19:17 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (9.5%). The market has $13K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $13K
- Liquidity: $198K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources
Related markets
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will Alberta join the US?
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.