Will China obtain an EUV machine?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2030 (69.0%), Before Jan 1, 2029 (54.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (32.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2030:
If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.
Sources
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