Will India resume the Indus Waters Treaty?
As of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 07:20:16 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (5.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If India agrees to or announces resumption of the Indus Waters Treaty after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. India must affirmatively agree to or announce resumption of the Indus Waters Treaty. A third-party ruling or acknowledgment of the treaty's legal status alone does not qualify. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of a previously announced commitment to resume the Treaty An affirmative withdrawal of the abeyance decision accompanied by a renewed commitment to Treaty operation qualifies.
Sources
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