Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price Shabana Mahmood (25.0%), Nigel Farage (24.0%), Kemi Badenoch (20.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 08 Jan 2035.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana Mahmood | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Nigel Farage | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Kemi Badenoch | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Angela Rayner | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| John Healey | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| NNEW | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Boris Johnson | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Ed Davey | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Louise Haigh | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Pat McFadden | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Wes Streeting | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Yvette Cooper | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Robert Jenrick | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Ed Miliband | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Shabana Mahmood:
If Shabana Mahmood formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. Andy Burnham is the holder at Issuance. A former holder who returns after Issuance is not disqualified solely on the basis of that prior service. If a person not listed here is first to formally hold the office after Issuance, every market resolves NO.
Sources
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