Which party will win the next UK general election?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Labour party (36.0%), Reform party (35.0%), Conservative party (23.0%). The market has $261K in volume and closes on Fri, 31 Aug 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour party | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| Reform party | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Conservative party | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Restore Britain party | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Green party | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Liberal Democratic party | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Your Party | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Bruv party | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $261K
- Liquidity: $261K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Labour party:
If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.
Sources
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