Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price New Hampshire (86.0%), Iowa (9.0%), South Carolina (4.0%). The market has $97K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Apr 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Iowa | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| South Carolina | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Nevada | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $97K
- Liquidity: $97K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for New Hampshire:
If New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of tied states. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Sources
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