Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price AfD (63.0%), BSW (18.0%), CDU (13.0%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Mon, 15 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| BSW | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| CDU | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Greens | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| SPD | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Die Linke | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| FDP | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for AfD:
If a coalition that includes AfD make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances).
Sources
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