Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:02:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (5.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Tue, 18 Apr 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes cast (suffrages exprimés) in the first round of voting, so that no second round is required. Blank and null ballots are not counted. The result of any second round does not matter. The market resolves once the Conseil constitutionnel proclaims the first-round results.
Sources
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