Next government of the United Kingdom?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:43 UTC, Kalshi traders price Labour majority (14.0%), Reform UK minority (9.0%), Reform UK majority (9.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour majority | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Reform UK minority | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Reform UK majority | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Reform UK minority + Conservative support | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Labour minority | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Reform UK and Conservative coalition | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Labour minority + SNP support | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Labour minority + Green support | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Reform UK minority + DUP support | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Conservative minority + DUP support | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Labour majority:
If the Labour Party, with the Labour Party holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status. A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature). If a parties description specifies support from one or more named parties, that support is exclusive to the named parties.
Sources
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