Next Japanese general election winner?
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:29:42 UTC, Kalshi traders price Liberal Democratic Party (76.0%), Democratic Party for the People (6.0%), Constitutional Democratic Party (5.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Thu, 07 Mar 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democratic Party | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Democratic Party for the People | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Constitutional Democratic Party | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Japan Innovation Party | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Sanseitō | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Democratic Reform Party | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Team Mirai | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Liberal Democratic Party:
If Liberal Democratic Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Sources
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