Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round)

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:41:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price Marine Le Pen (82.0%), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (5.0%), David Lisnard (4.0%). The market has $65K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 May 2027.

Updated: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:41:26 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Marine Le Pen	82.0%	82.0¢	18.0¢
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
David Lisnard	4.0%	4.0¢	96.0¢
Jordan Bardella	4.0%	4.0¢	96.0¢
Dominique de Villepin	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Édouard Philippe	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Raphaël Glucksmann	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Gabriel Attal	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Marine Tondelier	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Éric Zemmour	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
François Ruffin	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Xavier Bertrand	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Bruno Retailleau	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
François Hollande	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $65K
Liquidity: $65K
Closes: Sat, 01 May 2027

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Marine Le Pen:

If Marine Le Pen finishes in 1st place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of votes each candidate receives in the first round, as proclaimed by the Constitutional Council, whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). If a candidate not listed on this event finishes 1st, every market on this event resolves NO. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the ballot list is published but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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