AfD in a German state government?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2030 (96.0%), Before Jan 1, 2029 (91.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (79.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Feb 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2030:
If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government. The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count A coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count
Sources
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