Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (47.0%), Before Dec 1, 2026 (40.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (30.0%). The market has $1.7M in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.7M
- Liquidity: $1.7M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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