Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff?
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:29:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 21, 2029 (82.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (26.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (7.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Sun, 21 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 21, 2029:
If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if, during Trump's current Presidential term and before the deadline date, a single presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve names at least 25 Trump administration staff or covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area. Trump administration staff refers to officials and employees of the executive branch (the Executive Office of the President, the executive departments, federal agencies, and the armed forces) who served at any time after Jan 20, 2025. Contractors and other non-employees are not Trump administration staff. A pardon covers staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area if it applies to everyone who held a role, worked at an agency, or worked on a policy, without naming each of them. The group must be defined by executive branch service. A single pardon is one proclamation, executive order, or warrant of clemency. A pardon counts even if no recipient has been charged with a crime, and even if a recipient rejects it. Examples: One proclamation pardoning all officers and employees of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement → resolves to Yes One proclamation pardoning all federal personnel for conduct relating to immigration enforcement → resolves to Yes One warrant naming 30 W…
Sources
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