Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 03:06:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (12.3%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12.3% | 12.3¢ | 87.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $37K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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