Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Michael Malchieli (12.0%), Yoav Ben-Tzur (9.0%), Oded Forer (6.0%). The market has $46K in volume and closes on Wed, 27 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Malchieli | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Yoav Ben-Tzur | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Oded Forer | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Chili Tropper | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Yoram Cohen | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Aryeh Deri | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Haim Biton | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Keren Terner Eyal | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Yinon Azulay | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Israel Katz | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Miri Regev | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Yair Golan | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| David Amsalem | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $46K
- Liquidity: $46K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Michael Malchieli:
If Michael Malchieli formally takes office as Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of the Interior in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.
Sources
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