Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Itamar Ben-Gvir (15.0%), Yoram Cohen (12.0%), Matan Kahana (8.0%). The market has $81K in volume and closes on Wed, 27 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Yoram Cohen | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Matan Kahana | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Yitzhak Wasserlauf | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Ofer Winter | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Ram Ben-Barak | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Yoaz Hendel | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Talya Lankri | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Eli Cohen | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Elazar Stern | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Gideon Sa'ar | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Hamad Amar | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Limor Son Har-Melech | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Meirav Ben-Ari | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $81K
- Liquidity: $81K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Itamar Ben-Gvir:
If Itamar Ben-Gvir formally takes office as Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of National Security in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If the ministry is renamed or restructured, such as back to the Ministry of Public Security, the minister of a successor ministry with substantially the same responsibilities counts. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.
Sources
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