Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price USAID (17.0%), EPA (11.0%), IRS (7.0%). The market has $200K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| USAID | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| EPA | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| IRS | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| NASA | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $200K
- Liquidity: $200K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for USAID:
If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.
Sources
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