When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (33.0%), Before Dec 1, 2026 (22.0%), Before Nov 1, 2026 (7.0%). The market has $246K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $246K
- Liquidity: $246K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If an OpenAI product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The function must be live and processing user interactions, not explicitly labeled as "beta," "test," "experimental," "preview," or "early access" or similar, and officially acknowledged by the company through announcements, documentation, or help pages. Implementation includes direct integration into the product's interface, automatic application to user accounts, user-initiated activation through official controls, API implementation, or policy changes that operationally enforce the function. Announcements without deployment, employee-only testing, technical documentation without implementation, and third-party additions without authorization do not qualify. The implementation must occur in the United States unless otherwise specified. If it meets these conditions, it counts from the first date it is live for users outside the company, including in a gradual rollout or a waitlist, invitation-only, or paid-tier release. A general-purpose personal AI agent acts for an individual user on that user's own goals, is not limited to a single category of task or app, such as only code, only documents, or only shopping, and (1) retains user-specific information, such as preferences, relationships, goals, or ongoing activities, across separate interactions, and (2) as a bu…
Sources
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