US tariff revenue for 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above $80 billion (95.0%), Above $100 billion (94.0%), Above $150 billion (93.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $80 billion | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above $100 billion | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above $150 billion | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Above $125 billion | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| Above $200 billion | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Above $250 billion | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Above $300 billion | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above $80 billion:
If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b).
Sources
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