US trade deficit for 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 170 billion (92.0%), 119.6 billion to 119.9 billion (7.0%), 120 billion to 139.9 billion (6.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Sat, 29 May 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 170 billion | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| 119.6 billion to 119.9 billion | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| 120 billion to 139.9 billion | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 140 billion to 170 billion | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 65 billion to 74.9 billion | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 95 billion to 104.9 billion | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 45 billion to 54.9 billion | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 105 billion to 119.5 billion | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 75 billion to 84.9 billion | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 85 billion to 94.9 billion | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Below 45 billion | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| 55 billion to 64.9 billion | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 170 billion:
If US trade deficit for 2026 is above 170 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.
Sources
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