When will the next US recession start?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price Q4 2025 (6.0%), Q1 2026 (6.0%), Q4 2024 (3.0%). The market has $521K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Q1 2026 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Q3 2025 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $521K
- Liquidity: $521K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Q4 2025:
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Sources
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