How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 19:02:14 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 50 billion (5.0%), At least 500 billion (4.0%), At least 2 trillion (4.0%). The market has $277K in volume and closes on Wed, 31 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50 billion | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| At least 500 billion | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| At least 2 trillion | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| At least 250 billion | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| At least 1 trillion | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| At least 750 billion | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $277K
- Liquidity: $277K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 50 billion:
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.
Sources
Related markets
- Recession this year?
- How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
- Recession next year?
- When will the next US recession start?
- South Dakota corn yield this year
- Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.