How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 500000 in a single quarter (50.0%), Above 1000000 in a single quarter (4.0%), Above 750000 in a single quarter (3.0%). The market has $113K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 500000 in a single quarter | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Above 1000000 in a single quarter | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 750000 in a single quarter | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 1500000 in a single quarter | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 2000000 in a single quarter | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $113K
- Liquidity: $113K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 500000 in a single quarter:
If Tesla delivers more than 500000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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