Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:20:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price United Kingdom (14.0%), Japan (6.0%), China (3.0%). The market has $198K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Japan | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| China | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| India | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $198K
- Liquidity: $198K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for United Kingdom:
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
Sources
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