Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Trimmed Mean Emphasized (15.0%), Reserve President Rejected (15.0%), Dot Plot Omitted (12.0%). The market has $48K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trimmed Mean Emphasized | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Reserve President Rejected | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Dot Plot Omitted | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Presser Skipped | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Reserve President Removed | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $48K
- Liquidity: $48K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Trimmed Mean Emphasized:
If a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Clarification 9/28/26: “Dot Plot Omitted” refers to a published Summary of Economic Projections omitting individual participants’ federal funds rate projections as a whole. The absence of a projection from one or more participants does not qualify if other participants’ individual projections are published. Those projections count regardless of their presentation format or whether the term “dot plot” is used.
Sources
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