Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:13:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (3.1%). The market has $675K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $675K
- Liquidity: $675K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
Sources
Related markets
- Fed decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
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- Fed funds rate after October meeting?
- Number of rate hikes this year?
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