Number of rate hikes this year?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:24:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price Exactly 2 (70.0%), Exactly 1 (23.0%), Exactly 3 (9.0%). The market has $277K in volume and closes on Sun, 03 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Exactly 1 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Exactly 3 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| At least 4 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $277K
- Liquidity: $277K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Exactly 2:
If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.
Sources
Related markets
- Fed decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
- Number of emergency rate cuts this year?
- Fed funds rate after October meeting?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.