US unemployment rate at year-end 2026
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 3.0% (97.0%), Above 3.5% (96.0%), Above 4.0% (77.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Fri, 15 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Above 4.5% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Above 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Above 9.5% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 9.0% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 8.5% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 3.0%:
If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2026. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.
Sources
Related markets
- How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average this year
- Washington professional, scientific, and technical services employment at end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in September 2026?
- Port of New York and New Jersey container volume this year
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.