US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:38:06 UTC, Polymarket traders price March 31 (61.5%), December 31 (38.1%), November 30 (25.0%). The market has $193K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 61.5% | 61.5¢ | 38.5¢ |
| December 31 | 38.1% | 38.1¢ | 61.9¢ |
| November 30 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| October 31 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $193K
- Liquidity: $442K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the bloc…
Sources
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