Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:50:01 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (36.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes36.5%36.5¢63.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither a qualifying announcement of the end of the blockade nor a qualifying diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of the end of the blockade qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or s…

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