Iran coup attempt by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:10:32 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (27.5%), December 31, 2026 (11.0%). The market has $26K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 27.5% | 27.5¢ | 72.5¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $26K
- Liquidity: $39K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for December 31, 2027:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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