Iran leadership change by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:29:20 UTC, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 (25.5%), December 31 (11.5%), November 30 (5.5%). The market has $35K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| December 31 | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| November 30 | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| October 31 | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $35K
- Liquidity: $326K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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