US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:48:30 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (30.5%), November 30 (25.5%), November 2 (10.7%). The market has $67K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 30.5% | 30.5¢ | 69.5¢ |
| November 30 | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| November 2 | 10.7% | 10.7¢ | 89.3¢ |
| October 31 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $67K
- Liquidity: $159K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminol…
Sources
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