Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 01:26:35 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (33.5%), June 30, 2027 (21.0%), March 31, 2027 (13.5%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 33.5% | 33.5¢ | 66.5¢ |
| June 30, 2027 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| March 31, 2027 | 13.5% | 13.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| December 31 | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $84K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Sources
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