Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:57:44 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 21 (98.2%), October 31 (86.5%), November 15 (68.5%). The market has $295K in volume and closes on Thu, 22 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 | 98.2% | 98.2¢ | 1.8¢ |
| October 31 | 86.5% | 86.5¢ | 13.5¢ |
| November 15 | 68.5% | 68.5¢ | 31.5¢ |
| November 30 | 59.5% | 59.5¢ | 40.5¢ |
| December 31 | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $295K
- Liquidity: $318K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted muni…
Sources
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