Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 07:13:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (25.0%), October 31 (8.5%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| October 31 | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $64K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting f…
Sources
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