US defaults on debt by 2027?
As of Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:39:23 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (1.8%). The market has $19K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $19K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Sources
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