Lai Ching-te departure announced?
As of Fri, 18 Sep 2026 06:34:01 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before January 1, 2028 (30.0%), Before July 1, 2027 (12.0%), Before January 1, 2027 (4.0%). The market has $22K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 1, 2028 | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Before July 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Before January 1, 2027 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $22K
- Liquidity: $22K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before January 1, 2028:
If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
Sources
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