Laurier-Sainte-Marie by-election winner?
As of Thu, 05 Nov 2026 10:03:41 UTC, Kalshi traders price Liberal (79.0%), Bloc (10.0%), NDP (10.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 07 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Bloc | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| NDP | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Conservative | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Liberal:
If the Liberal Party wins the next Laurier-Sainte-Marie federal by-election, then the market resolves to Yes. A party's candidate is the candidate registered with Elections Canada under that party's name, or under a registered party it merges into; an independent or other-party candidate a party backs does not count. A candidate registered under a listed party's own name counts only for that party; if a candidate would otherwise count for more than one listed party through a merger, the candidate counts only for the first of them in the order NDP, Liberal, Bloc and Conservative. A general election contest for this seat is not a by-election for this market. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Sources
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