How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 09:03:21 UTC, Polymarket traders price 450k to 475k (29.5%), 425k to 450k (19.0%), 475k to 500k (17.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 450k to 475k | 29.5% | 29.5¢ | 70.5¢ |
| 425k to 450k | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| 475k to 500k | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| 575k+ | 13.5% | 13.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| 550k to 575k | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| 400k to 425k | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| 500k to 525k | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| <400k | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 525k to 550k | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Sources
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