How low will US diesel prices get this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:54 UTC, Kalshi traders price Below $5.70 (35.0%), Below $5.50 (25.0%), Below $5.30 (19.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Thu, 07 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $5.70 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Below $5.50 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Below $5.30 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Below $5.10 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Below $4.90 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Below $4.70 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Below $4.30 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Below $4.50 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Below $3.70 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Below $3.50 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Below $4.10 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Below $3.90 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $9K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Below $5.70:
If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.70, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the applicable market may close and resolve to Yes early.
Sources
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