Texas crude oil production this year
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:55 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 5.6 million barrels/day (99.0%), Above 5.7 million barrels/day (98.0%), Above 5.8 million barrels/day (26.0%). The market has $229K in volume and closes on Wed, 07 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.6 million barrels/day | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 5.7 million barrels/day | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 5.8 million barrels/day | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Above 5.9 million barrels/day | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $229K
- Liquidity: $229K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 5.6 million barrels/day:
If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day and will be converted to million barrels per day by dividing by 1,000. EIA notes that its Texas estimates may differ from Railroad Commission of Texas figures, so only EIA data will be used.
Sources
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