US crude oil exports in November
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 17:34:39 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4.0 million barrels/day (86.0%), Above 5.5 million barrels/day (53.0%), Above 6.0 million barrels/day (53.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Fri, 05 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.0 million barrels/day | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Above 5.5 million barrels/day | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above 6.0 million barrels/day | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above 4.5 million barrels/day | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Above 5.0 million barrels/day | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4.0 million barrels/day:
If the U.S. crude oil exports average for November 2026 is above 4.0 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is EIA’s monthly “U.S. Exports of Crude Oil” series (MCREXUS2) for November 2026. EIA reports this figure in thousand barrels per day, which will be divided by 1,000 to convert to million barrels per day. The first published monthly figure will be used, including if designated preliminary or estimated. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement. Weekly figures and forecasts are excluded.
Sources
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