How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get this year?
As of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:20:18 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 91,500 MW (5.0%), Above 92,000 MW (4.0%), Above 92,500 MW (4.0%). The market has $684K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 91,500 MW | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 92,000 MW | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 92,500 MW | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 94,000 MW | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 93,000 MW | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 96,000 MW | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 98,000 MW | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $684K
- Liquidity: $684K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 91,500 MW:
If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.
Sources
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