CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:14 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 50% (90.0%), At least 52% (89.0%), At least 54% (76.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Sun, 03 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| At least 52% | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| At least 54% | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| At least 56% | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| At least 58% | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| At least 60% | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| At least 62% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| At least 64% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| At least 66% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 50%:
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Sources
Related markets
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- California Governor winner? (Person)
- Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.