Will the U.S. ban any open-source AI model this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:34:05 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (25.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If a federal ban on public access to open-source AI models is enacted in the United States through legislation, an executive order, a regulation or another binding federal measure before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the measure to become legally binding. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and satisfaction of any required procedural steps for implementation; a delayed effective date does not prevent enactment Administrative regulations, including export controls: completion of required rulemaking procedures and final publication in the official government record; a binding interim final rule counts once published Other governmental measures: official issuance in final, legally binding form The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders or proposed rules Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges. A qualifying measure counts once enacted or issued, regardless of a later effective date. For this mark…
Sources
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