Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Mar 1, 2027 (73.0%), Before Jan 10, 2027 (60.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Mon, 15 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| Before Jan 10, 2027 | 60.0% | 60.0¢ | 40.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Mar 1, 2027:
If Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A pardon, commutation or amnesty granted by a competent Brazilian authority counts, including a decree or law that covers him without naming him, even if a court later suspends or annuls it. A court ruling that overturns or reduces his conviction or sentence, a law that only reduces penalties or changes sentence-progression rules for a class of convicts, and a change of custody such as house arrest do not count.
Sources
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