Will California home prices increase YoY this quarter?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:19:52 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (35.0%). The market has $31K in volume and closes on Tue, 02 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $31K
- Liquidity: $31K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike.
Sources
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